CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-12-28T12:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-12-28T12:39Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9936/-1
CME Note: CME is associated with a M1.8 class flare from AR 2473.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-12-31T00:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-12-31T03:39Z
Prediction Method: SPM2
Prediction Method Note:

Initial shock speed: 850 km/s
source longitude: 8
source latitude: -6
background solar wind speed: 370 km/s
duration time: 1 hour

The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2015-12-31 03:38:33

The transit time predicted is 62.99 hours!

Lead Time: 12.28 hour(s)
Difference: -3.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2015-12-30T11:45Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement